We generally know that crude oil pumped after the US/Israel/Iran war started and a top Iranian leader was killed. However, when we look at the price action more closely (the cyan box), the upside move actually started in January from its bottom near $60. It had already reached $70 before the February 28th attack. Later, as we all know, it hit $120 in just 10 days.
Since March 10th, Brent has been trying to break above the $120 resistance level. After dipping, it has remained range-bound. The technical indicator showed some weakening in April, but the correction was shallow. That allowed it to retest and reach the $120 level again by the end of April into early May.
What we are seeing now is a loss of momentum, mainly due to the potential for a peace deal. This is a classic example of how fundamental analysis and technical analysis work hand in hand. Technical analysis defines the important price ranges — including support and resistance — while fundamental events drive the direction.
Technically, a sustained move below $80 would weaken the current uptrend, and a break below $70 could signal a potential trend reversal. Staying under $100 would indicate a lack of immediate upside momentum. These key levels matter a lot because crude oil prices have a direct impact on both the stock market and crypto market.
Currently, the softening in oil prices is providing significant relief for stocks and crypto, and it lines up well with the evolving fundamental backdrop.